Sixth mass extinction: The era of 'biological annihilation'.
Many scientists say
it's abundantly clear that Earth is entering its sixth mass-extinction event,
meaning three-quarters of all species could disappear in the coming centuries.
That's terrifying, especially since humans are contributing to
this shift.
But that's not even the full picture of the "biological
annihilation" people are inflicting on the natural world, according to a study published Monday in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Gerardo Ceballos, an ecology
professor at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, and his co-authors,
including well-known Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich, cite striking
new evidence that populations of species we thought were common are suffering
in unseen ways.
"What is at stake is really the state of humanity,"
Ceballos told CNN.
Their key findings: Nearly
one-third of the 27,600 land-based mammal, bird, amphibian and reptile species
studied are shrinking in terms of their numbers and territorial range. The
researchers called that an "extremely high degree of population
decay."
The scientists also looked at
a well-studied group of 177 mammal species and found that all of them had lost
at least 30% of their territory between 1900 and 2015; more than 40% of those
species "experienced severe population declines," meaning they lost
at least 80% of their geographic range during that time.
Looking at the extinction
crisis not only in terms of species that are on the brink but also those whose
populations and ranges are shrinking helps show that "Earth's sixth mass
extinction is more severe" than previously thought, the authors write. They
say a major extinction event is "ongoing."
"It's the most
comprehensive study of this sort to date that I'm aware of," said Anthony
Barnosky, executive director of the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve at
Stanford University, who was not involved in the study. Its value, Barnosky
said, is that it makes visible a phenomenon typically unseen by scientists and
the public: that even populations of relatively common species are crashing.
"We've got this stuff
going on that we can't really see because we're not constantly counting numbers
of individuals," he said. "But when you realize that we've wiped out
50% of the Earth's wildlife in the last 40 years, it doesn't take complicated
math to figure out that, if we keep cutting by half every 40 years, pretty soon
there's going to be nothing left."
Stuart Pimm, chair of
conservation ecology at Duke University in North Carolina, summed up the the
concept this way: "When I look out over the woods that constitute my view
from my window here, I know we no longer have wolves or panthers or black bears
wandering around. We have eliminated a lot of species from a lot of areas. So
we no longer have a functional set of species across large parts of the
planet."
This is an important point to
emphasize, Pimm said. But the new paper's analysis risks overstating the degree
to which extinction events already are occurring, he said, and the research
methodology does not have the level of granularity needed to be particularly
useful for conservationists.
"What good mapping does
is to tell you where you need to act," Pimm said. "The value of the
Ceballos paper is a sense of the problem. But given there's a problem, what the
bloody hell are we going to do about it?"
Often, scientists who study
crisis in the natural world focus on species that are at high and short-term
risk for extinction. These plants and animals tend to be odd and unfamiliar,
often restricted to one island or forest. You probably didn't notice, for
example, that the Catarina pupfish, native to Mexico, went extinct in 2014,
according to the paper. Or that a bat called the Christmas Island pipistrelle
is thought to have vanished in 2009.
Meanwhile, as this research
shows, entire populationsof other plants and animals are crashing, even if
they're not yet on the brink of extinction. Some of these are well-known.
Consider the African elephant.
"On the one hand, you can say, 'All right, we still have around 400,000
elephants in Africa, and that seems like a really big number,' " Barnosky
said. "But then, if you step back, that's cut by more than half of what
their populations were in the early part of last century. There were well over
1 million elephants (then).
"And if you look at
what's happened in the last decade, we have been culling their numbers so fast
that if we kept up with that pace, there would be no more wild elephants in
Africa in 20 years."
Twenty years. No more African
elephants. Think about that.
Barn swallows and jaguars are
two other examples, according to Ceballos, the lead author of the paper. Both
are somewhat common in terms of their total numbers, he said, but their decline
is troubling in some places.
Such population crashes can,
of course, lead to inevitable extinctions. And currently, scientists say that
species are going extinct at roughly 100 times what would be considered normal
-- perhaps considerably more.
There has been some
dispute lately about whether the Earth's sixth mass extinction event
already has begun or is simply on the horizon, but there is little disagreement
among scientists that humans are driving an unprecedented ecological crisis.
And the causes are well-known. People are burning fossil fuels, contributing to
climate change. They're chopping down forests and other habitat for
agriculture, to the point 37% of Earth's
land surface now is farmland or pasture, according to the World
Bank. The global population of people continues to rise, along with our thirst
for land and consumption. And finally, but not exclusively, poachers are
driving numbers of elephants, pangolins, rhinos, giraffes and other
creatures with body parts valuable on the black market to worryingly low
levels.
All of this is contributing to a rapid decline in wild
creatures, both on land and in the ocean.
Ceballos' paper highlights the urgency of this crisis -- and the
need for change.
"The good news is, we still have time," he said.
"These results show it is time to act. The window of opportunity is small,
but we can still do something to save species and populations."
Otherwise, "biological annihilation" continues.
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